Let's start with Putin

[Politico]

Here's my dt.2 model of the topic "Will Putin target Europe", which I did in June 07 using dt.1.



My analysis was that I guessed that all parties would implement the threatened future because

(a) Putin & the Western countries both preferred it to each other's position.
(b) Neither side was very concerned to convert the other to its position. In fact, their preference for their own position over the threatened future was not very strong.

What difference does dt.2 make to this analysis? Not much. It's broadly the same, only a bit more focussed.

(a) Instead of asking whether parties prefer the threatened future to each others' positions, we now ask: does any party doubt that the threatened future will be carried out? None seemed to, so each side (Russia & the West) faced persuasion dilemmas over options where their position was flouted.
(b) Instead of asking how strongly parties prefer their position to the threatened future, we now ask -- do they really care about their positions being flouted over these options? We could guess that they didn't much care, so weren't likely to do much about it.

Same conclusions, reached with greater clarity & focus.

Note that we still use arrows to show persuasion dilemmas. A right-pointing arrow in a position means that the position owner believes the row owner will flout its position in at least one option.

Note also two other changes to improve presentation of an options board. The stated intentions column is placed to the right. And descriptive titles are attached to columns. I made these changes using Windows Paint. Might as well, since in general we'll have to mess around with CM.1 options boards in order to do dt.2 analysis.